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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. US Politics
  3. Who will leave their position in Starmer's cabinet before July?
Who will leave their position in Starmer's cabinet before July?

Who will leave their position in Starmer's cabinet before July?

One-OffUS PoliticsEurope19d
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Rachel Reeves
Rachel Reeves 4%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$149.6

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

4.0% / 10.0%

Spread

150.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

May 4, 26, 7:30 PMJul 1, 26, 3:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Rachel Reeves4%

Rules

If Rachel Reeves leaves as Chancellor before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Rachel Reeves must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
  • Note: A Cabinet reshuffle in which the individual ceases to hold the specified role but remains a member of the Cabinet still qualifies as leaving the role
  • If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
  • Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
  • If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.

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Rules

If Rachel Reeves leaves as Chancellor before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Rachel Reeves must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
  • Note: A Cabinet reshuffle in which the individual ceases to hold the specified role but remains a member of the Cabinet still qualifies as leaving the role
  • If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
  • Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
  • If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.