KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above -1.5% (73%)
Resolved: Oct 21, 2026, 1:12 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 1:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 1.0%9%
Above 2.5%2%
Above -1.0%54%
Above 0.5%3%
Above -1.5%Won
Before close: 73% ·
Above -1.0%Lost
Before close: 54% ·
Above -0.5%Lost
Before close: 41% ·
Above 0.0%Lost
Before close: 20% ·
Above 1.0%Lost
Before close: 9% ·
Above 0.5%Lost
Before close: 3% ·
Above 2.5%Lost
Before close: 2% ·
Above 1.5%Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Above 2.0%Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Above 3.0%Lost
Before close: 0% ·
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PolymarketRules
If the South Africa retail sales MoM for August 2026 is above -1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Trading Economics
Rules for each outcome
- Above -1.5%
- If the South Africa retail sales MoM for August 2026 is above -1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -1.0%
- If the South Africa retail sales MoM for August 2026 is above -1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -0.5%
- If the South Africa retail sales MoM for August 2026 is above -0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.0%
- If the South Africa retail sales MoM for August 2026 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 1.0%
- If the South Africa retail sales MoM for August 2026 is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.5%
- If the South Africa retail sales MoM for August 2026 is above 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2.5%
- If the South Africa retail sales MoM for August 2026 is above 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 1.5%
- If the South Africa retail sales MoM for August 2026 is above 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2.0%
- If the South Africa retail sales MoM for August 2026 is above 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 3.0%
- If the South Africa retail sales MoM for August 2026 is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.