KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Biden (99%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 3, 2026, 8:04 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Trump (3+ times)1%
Deport / Deportation1%
Poll / Pollster / Polling45%
Border99%
ICE / DHS1%
Event does not qualify1%
Immigrant / Immigration1%
Inflation99%
Biden99%
Tax99%
Talarico99%
Transgender76%
Democrat99%
Fraud1%
ID / Identification1%
Investigate / Investigating / Investigation1%
BorderLost
InflationLost
BidenWon
TaxLost
TalaricoLost
DemocratLost
Poll / Pollster / PollingLost
Trump (3+ times)Lost
Deport / DeportationLost
ICE / DHSLost
Event does not qualifyLost
Immigrant / ImmigrationLost
TransgenderLost
FraudLost
ID / IdentificationLost
Investigate / Investigating / InvestigationLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWill Ken Paxton win the Texas Senate General Election by more than 1 percentage points?
ForecastExWill Ken Paxton win the Texas Senate General Election by more than 2 percentage points?
ForecastExWill Ken Paxton and James Talarico debate?
Manifold MarketsWill Ken Paxton get 40% or more of the Asian vote in the 2026 senate election, according to the CNN exit poll?
Manifold MarketsWill Ken Paxton win the Texas Senate General Election by more than 5 percentage points?
ForecastExRules
If Ken Paxton says Biden as part of Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSThe Washington PostAxiosCNNReutersThe New York Timesthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). Ken Paxton speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.
Rules for each outcome
- Border
- If Ken Paxton says Border as part of Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Inflation
- If Ken Paxton says Inflation as part of Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Biden
- If Ken Paxton says Biden as part of Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tax
- If Ken Paxton says Tax as part of Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Talarico
- If Ken Paxton says Talarico as part of Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrat
- If Ken Paxton says Democrat as part of Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Poll / Pollster / Polling
- If Ken Paxton says Poll / Pollster / Polling as part of Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump (3+ times)
- If Ken Paxton says Trump (3+ times) as part of Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Deport / Deportation
- If Ken Paxton says Deport / Deportation as part of Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- ICE / DHS
- If Ken Paxton says ICE / DHS as part of Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Event does not qualify
- If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Immigrant / Immigration
- If Ken Paxton says Immigrant / Immigration as part of Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Transgender
- If Ken Paxton says Transgender as part of Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Fraud
- If Ken Paxton says Fraud as part of Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- ID / Identification
- If Ken Paxton says ID / Identification as part of Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Investigate / Investigating / Investigation
- If Ken Paxton says Investigate / Investigating / Investigation as part of Fox News America Reports originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.