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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Bonds & Treasuries
  3. Where will the 10 year US Treasury yield close this quarter?
Where will the 10 year US Treasury yield close this quarter?

Where will the 10 year US Treasury yield close this quarter?

Bonds & TreasuriesOne-Off19d
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
4.501% to 4.6%
4.501% to 4.6% 25%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0.2

Liquidity

$27.1

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

18.0% / 25.0%

Spread

38.9%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 7 minutes ago

May 28, 26, 2:00 PMJun 30, 26, 9:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

4.501% to 4.6%25%

Rules

If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury notes is between 4.000-4.100 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jun 30, 2026, or one week following Jun 30, 2026.
  • If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury notes is between 4.101-4.200 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury notes is between 4.201-4.300 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury notes is between 4.301-4.400 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury notes is between 4.401-4.500 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,604.58+2.36%EthereumETH$1,650.76+1.70%SolanaSOL$65.09+1.42%

Related Markets

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

$42.8
4.3%: 100%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

$13.2
5.1% or above: 7%KalshiKALSHI
30Y US Treasury Yield at month-end?

30Y US Treasury Yield at month-end?

$4.2
Above 4.95%: 69%KalshiKALSHI
Treasury 10-year yield on Jun 12, 2026?

Treasury 10-year yield on Jun 12, 2026?

$2.4
4.53% to 4.55%: 14%KalshiKALSHI
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?

$1
Yes: 4%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Peak US National Debt before 2027?

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

$0
$39 trillion: 100%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Active in these topics

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Rules

If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury notes is between 4.000-4.100 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jun 30, 2026, or one week following Jun 30, 2026.
  • If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury notes is between 4.101-4.200 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury notes is between 4.201-4.300 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury notes is between 4.301-4.400 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury notes is between 4.401-4.500 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.