KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
55° to 56° 62%Leader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
55° to 56° 62%Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$801.1
Open interest
$779.1
Low open interestMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 2:00 PM UTCOct 2, 26, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 5m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 30, 2026?
KalshiWill the lowest temperature in San Francisco (SF)(SFO)(KSFO) be below 55 F on September 30, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest)?
ForecastExWill the lowest temperature in San Francisco (SF)(SFO)(KSFO) be below 58 F on September 30, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest)?
ForecastExWill the lowest temperature in San Francisco (SF)(SFO)(KSFO) be below 56 F on September 30, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest)?
ForecastExWill the lowest temperature in San Francisco (SF)(SFO)(KSFO) be below 57 F on September 30, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest)?
ForecastExLowest temperature in San Francisco on October 1?
PolymarketRules
If the minimum temperature recorded at San Francisco (CLISFO) for Oct 1, 2026, is between 55-56° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Weather Company
- Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company. Reading weather data Preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value. Use caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings. If it is determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange that there is a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, Expiration may be held until the publication of a non-materially-erroneous data revision or until the Expiration Date, whichever comes first. If no data is available at the end of this period, all markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi. Please note, a status of "Final" on weather.com/kalshi is provided for convenience only, and does not guarantee data to be error-free and thus exempt from the above.
Rules for each outcome
- 55° to 56°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at San Francisco (CLISFO) for Oct 1, 2026, is between 55-56° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 53° to 54°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at San Francisco (CLISFO) for Oct 1, 2026, is between 53-54° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 57° to 58°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at San Francisco (CLISFO) for Oct 1, 2026, is between 57-58° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 59° or above
- If the minimum temperature recorded at San Francisco (CLISFO) for Oct 1, 2026, is greater than 58° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 50° or below
- If the minimum temperature recorded at San Francisco (CLISFO) for Oct 1, 2026, is less than 51° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 51° to 52°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at San Francisco (CLISFO) for Oct 1, 2026, is between 51-52° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.