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Data as of Nov 5, 2026, 3:26 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Trump · —
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Stored price
Trump 84.5%Leader of 15 outcomes
Trump 84.5%Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$12.9K
Open interest
$12.1K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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TrumpSpread
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Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Nov 4, 26, 9:00 PM UTCNov 18, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Trump
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Amy Acton outperform Sherrod Brown in 2026?
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ForecastExWill Sherrod Brown be sworn in to the Senate, on or before December 18 2026?
Manifold MarketsOhio Senate election: Sherrod Brown vote percent
KalshiFranklin County, Ohio: Sherrod Brown vote percent
KalshiWill Sherrod Brown outperform the polls?
KalshiRules
If Sherrod Brown says Trump as part of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSThe Washington PostAxiosCNNReutersThe New York Timesthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). Sherrod Brown speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.
Rules for each outcome
- Trump
- If Sherrod Brown says Trump as part of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Oil / Gas / Diesel
- If Sherrod Brown says Oil / Gas / Diesel as part of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Healthcare
- If Sherrod Brown says Healthcare as part of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data Center
- If Sherrod Brown says Data Center as part of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Afford / Affordable / Affordability
- If Sherrod Brown says Afford / Affordable / Affordability as part of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tariff
- If Sherrod Brown says Tariff as part of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Economy / Economic
- If Sherrod Brown says Economy / Economic as part of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Billionaire
- If Sherrod Brown says Billionaire as part of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Inflation / Grocery
- If Sherrod Brown says Inflation / Grocery as part of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Utility / Energy Prices
- If Sherrod Brown says Utility / Energy Prices as part of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Republican
- If Sherrod Brown says Republican as part of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Corrupt / Corruption
- If Sherrod Brown says Corrupt / Corruption as part of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Abortion
- If Sherrod Brown says Abortion as part of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Insulin
- If Sherrod Brown says Insulin as part of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Event does not qualify
- If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.