KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 65%
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$25.6K
Liquidity
$25.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
34.0% / 35.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jul 24, 26, 9:30 PMSep 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes35%
Volume trend
$25.6kJul 272d of dataJul 28
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Rules
If a daily maximum air temperature of at least 103°F occurs in Houston, Texas, at Houston Hobby Airport in August 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The weather event must be explicitly identified and recorded in official reports, bulletins, advisories, or databases maintained by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service with jurisdiction over the specified area.
- Only the first published version confirming the event is used for resolution.
- For weather events defined by quantitative thresholds (hurricanes by sustained wind speed, tornadoes by Enhanced Fujita scale rating, heatwaves by temperature criteria, etc.), the determination follows official standards used by the Source Agency at the time of the event.
- A recording of "T" for Trace is considered above 0.00 inches but not necessarily above a specific positive number.
- Forecasts, projections, outlooks, or informal media mentions that do not result in confirmed occurrences do not qualify.