Current implied probability
84° or below 67%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
88 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$7.8K
Liquidity
$6.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
65.0% / 66.0%
Spread
1.5%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jul 13, 26, 2:00 PMJul 15, 26, 5:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
84° or below67%
Compare venues· 84° or below
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 67% | — | $7.8K | $6.7K | 1 minute ago | |
 PolymarketMost active84% match · auto | High | 35% | — | $12K | $53.4K | 8 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in Austin on July 14?
0.2%8h
+2.0%35%
+3.0%28%
+5.0%24%
+8 more outcomes
77 • High qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$14.6K
24h Vol$12K
POLYMARKETRules
If the highest temperature recorded in Austin Bergstrom for July 14, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 85°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded in Austin Bergstrom for July 14, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 85-86°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$7.8kJul 132d of dataJul 14
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If the highest temperature recorded in Austin Bergstrom for July 14, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 85°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded in Austin Bergstrom for July 14, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 85-86°, then the market resolves to Yes.