Current implied probability
95° or above 10%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$11.4K
Liquidity
$8.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 13.0%
Spread
8.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jul 12, 26, 2:00 PMJul 14, 26, 5:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
95° or above10%
Compare venues· 93° to 94°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall84% match · auto | Medium | 50% | — | $7.3K | $68.1K | 5 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis pageMost active | Medium | 37% | — | $11.4K | $8.6K | 1 minute ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 13?
11h
50%
30%
14%
+8 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$7.3K
24h Vol$7.3K
POLYMARKETRules
If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 13, 2026, is less than 87° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 13, 2026, is between 87-88° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$11.4kJul 122d of dataJul 13
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If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 13, 2026, is less than 87° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 13, 2026, is between 87-88° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.