Current implied probability
86° to 87° 22%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$7.4K
Liquidity
$5.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
22.0% / 26.0%
Spread
18.2%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 12, 26, 2:00 PMJul 14, 26, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
86° to 87°22%
Compare venues· 84° to 85°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall84% match · auto | High | 46% | — | $13.2K | $44.2K | 16 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis page | Medium | 48% | — | $7.4K | $5.8K | 10 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in NYC on July 13?
11h
46%
34%
12%
+8 more outcomes
77 • High qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$13.2K
24h Vol$13.2K
POLYMARKETRules
If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 13, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 82°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 13, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 82-83°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$7.4kJul 122d of dataJul 13
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If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 13, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 82°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 13, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 82-83°, then the market resolves to Yes.