KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Trump (99%)
Resolved: Sep 11, 2026, 1:55 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Trump
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
95%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 11, 2026, 1:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Trump76%
Sanctuary49%
School Choice23%
Immigrant / Immigration21%
Democrat63%
Tax34%
Border28%
ICE15%
Data Center8%
Talarico38%
Paxton21%
Socialist / Socialism35%
Event does not qualify0%
TrumpWon
SanctuaryLost
School ChoiceLost
Immigrant / ImmigrationLost
DemocratLost
TaxLost
BorderLost
ICELost
Data CenterLost
TalaricoLost
PaxtonLost
Socialist / SocialismLost
Event does not qualifyLost
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PolymarketRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the RNC Midterm Convention using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the RNC Midterm Convention will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Greg Abbott speaking in an official capacity.