KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Magnitude of at least 5.4 (98%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 11:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Magnitude of at least 5.480%
Magnitude of at least 5.644%
Magnitude of at least 5.294%
Magnitude of at least 6.614%
Magnitude of at least 5.858%
Magnitude of at least 6.815%
Magnitude of at least 6.215%
Magnitude of at least 6.413%
Magnitude of at least 7.07%
Magnitude of at least 6.047%
Magnitude of at least 5.2Lost
Before close: 87% ·
Magnitude of at least 5.4Won
Before close: 78% ·
Magnitude of at least 5.6Lost
Magnitude of at least 5.8Lost
Magnitude of at least 6.0Lost
Magnitude of at least 6.8Lost
Magnitude of at least 6.6Lost
Magnitude of at least 6.2Lost
Magnitude of at least 6.4Lost
Magnitude of at least 7.0Lost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWhere will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
KalshiRules
If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 26, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the United States Geological Survey
- The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.
Rules for each outcome
- Magnitude of at least 5.2
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 26, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.4
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 26, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.6
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 26, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.8
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 26, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.0
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 26, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.8
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 26, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.6
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 26, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.2
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 26, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.4
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 26, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 7.0
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 26, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 7.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.