KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Nov 5, 2026, 4:28 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 5, 2026, 11:43 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Magnitude of at least 5.26%
Magnitude of at least 5.43%
Magnitude of at least 5.62%
Magnitude of at least 5.82%
Magnitude of at least 6.01%
Magnitude of at least 6.45%
Magnitude of at least 6.26%
Magnitude of at least 7.08%
Magnitude of at least 6.815%
Magnitude of at least 6.614%
Magnitude of at least 7.0Lost
Magnitude of at least 5.2Lost
Magnitude of at least 6.2Lost
Magnitude of at least 6.8Lost
Magnitude of at least 5.4Lost
Magnitude of at least 6.6Lost
Magnitude of at least 5.6Lost
Magnitude of at least 5.8Lost
Magnitude of at least 6.0Lost
Magnitude of at least 6.4Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will the biggest earthquake be on November 5, 2026?
PolymarketWhat will the biggest earthquake be on November 6, 2026?
PolymarketWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
Kalshi10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
PolymarketWhere will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
KalshiRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:the United States Geological Survey
- The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.
Rules for each outcome
- Magnitude of at least 7.0
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Nov 4, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 7.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.2
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Nov 4, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.2
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Nov 4, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.8
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Nov 4, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.4
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Nov 4, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.6
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Nov 4, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.6
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Nov 4, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.8
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Nov 4, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.0
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Nov 4, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.4
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Nov 4, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.