KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Sanction (99%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 24, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Sanction 99%Leader of 23 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$46.4K
Liquidity
$44K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 24, 26, 12:15 PMSep 8, 26, 2:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Sanction94%
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation99%
Nuclear35%
Event does not qualify0%
Blockade1%
Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency1%
Iran / Iranian (5+ times)80%
China / Chinese1%
Hormuz1%
Inflation1%
Tariff1%
Economic D-Day / Economic Fury1%
Trump (3+ times)80%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline78%
Russia / Russian1%
Stock Market1%
GDP1%
Tax Cut / Cut Tax1%
Israel / Israeli1%
AI / Artificial Intelligence0%
Ceasefire1%
America First1%
Drone1%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Rules
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the Press Conference originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Press Conference originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Scott Bessent speaking in an official capacity.
