What are the current odds for Zcash Orchard pool vulnerability proven not exploited by Dec 31, 2026??

Gemini prices Proof of non-exploitation published at 6.5% as of October 19, 2026.

Zcash Orchard pool vulnerability proven not exploited by Dec 31, 2026?

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Data quality warningNo live quotes

Data as of Oct 19, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current implied probability

Proof of non-exploitation published 6.5%

Market quality

29 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Liquidity unknown

Bid / Ask

4.0% / 9.0%

Spread

5.0 pt

Moderate spread

Traders

Market data

Updated 9 minutes ago

Jun 9, 26, 12:29 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC

Outcome24hChance

Proof of non-exploitation published

6.5%

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Rules

Will the June 2026 Zcash Orchard pool vulnerability be proven to have not been exploited by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a Mathematical Proof is published and accepted by the Source Agency demonstrating that the June 2026 Zcash Orchard shielded-pool soundness vulnerability (the under-constrained element in the Orchard Action circuit in the halo2_gadgets crate, present since Orchard activation in May 2022, disclosed by the Zcash Open Development Lab and Shielded Labs, and remediated via the emergency network upgrade activated June 1-3, 2026) was NOT exploited in a production environment prior to the deployment of the official remediation.
"Mathematical Proof" means a cryptographically valid, formally verified, or peer-reviewed publication that demonstrates with mathematical or cryptographic certainty that the vulnerability was or was not exploited prior to remediation (e.g., formal circuit verification, exploit reconstruction, chain-state proof, supply-audit/turnstile-accounting mechanism, or an equivalent technique) and that is accepted by the Source Agency.
This market resolves to NO if, on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a Mathematical Proof is published and accepted by the Source Agency demonstrating that the vulnerability WAS exploited, OR if no qualifying Mathematical Proof (of either exploitation or non-exploitation) is published and accepted by the Source Agency on or before that date.
(For clarity: a NO resolution covers two distinct situations -- (i) a proof that the vulnerability WAS exploited, and (ii) the absence of any accepted Mathematical Proof either way by the deadline.
A NO share should not be read as a bet that exploitation occurred.)