What are the current odds for Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited??

Polymarket prices No at 96% as of October 6, 2026.

When does Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? resolve?

Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? is scheduled to resolve on June 5, 2027.

Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited?

0.1 pts (24h)ZcashOne-OffCrypto8mo

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current implied probability

No 96%+0.1pt

Market quality

≤49 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

—

Liquidity

$4.8K

Medium liquidity

Bid / Ask

3.7% / 5.1%

Spread

1.4 pt

Tight spread

Comments

7d Change

-0.2 pts

Market data

Updated 19 minutes ago

Jun 5, 26, 9:26 PM UTCJun 5, 27, 3:59 AM UTC

Outcome24hChance

Venue terms

Source: Polymarket

Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.

Minimum order (shares):: 5
Tick size:: 0.1 percentage points
Fees:: Yes

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

ZEC price on October 6

Gemini

What price will Zcash hit in 2026?

Polymarket

How high will ZEC get in October?

Kalshi

ZEC price on October 31

Gemini

ZEC price on October 9

Gemini

ZEC price at the end of the year?

Kalshi

Rules

This market asks whether Zcash's Orchard pool vulnerability publicized June 4 is confirmed to have been exploited on Zcash mainnet before it was fixed.

This market resolves "Yes" if Shielded Labs, the Zcash Foundation, or the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL) explicitly confirms, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms, that the June 4 Zcash Orchard pool vulnerability was exploited on mainnet before the fix was activated by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Explicit confirmation of any of the following will qualify: - The Orchard pool bug was exploited on Zcash mainnet - Any extra, unauthorized, invalid, or unbacked Zcash was created in the Orchard pool through this vulnerability - A Zcash network upgrade, migration, audit, turnstile-accounting process (including the proposed new shielded pool with enforced turnstile accounting on exiting Orchard coins), or official investigation reveals excess or invalid Zcash in the Orchard pool that the source attributes to this specific vulnerability.
New or different exploits targeting the Orchard pool after the original vulnerability was fixed are explicitly disqualified and will not qualify.
This market will resolve based on official information from Shielded Labs, the Zcash Foundation, or the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL), however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying exploit may also resolve this market.