Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Very strong 51%-11.0ptFührend unter 4 OptionenMargenbereinigt: Die Rohquoten summierten sich auf über 100 % und wurden normalisiert.
Very strong 51%-11.0ptMarktqualitat
64 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
3770,8 €
Liquidität
2811,7 €
Mittlere LiquiditätSpread
3.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadKommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 36 Minuten
5. Okt. 26, 21:18 UTC21. Okt. 26, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Polymarket
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Mindestorder (Anteile):
- 5
- Preisschritt:
- 1 Prozentpunkte
- Gebühren:
- Ja
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on Mars before strong AGI is achieved?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Koguma.
- Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Koguma in an analysis published for the storm.
- Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
- If JMA never assigns Koguma an intensity class, this market will resolve to "the named outcome".
- JMA's own bounds: "the named outcome" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), "Strong" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), "the named outcome" is 44 to 54 m/s (85 to 105 kt), and "Violent" is 54 m/s (105 kt) or more.
- JMA states the intensity class in the "Intensity" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm, alongside the storm's "Grade", and assigns an intensity class only to a cyclone it grades "TY".