Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
1480+ 81%-0.5ptFührend unter 5 Optionen
1480+ 81%-0.5ptMarktqualitat
37 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
524,5 €
Liquidität
680,7 €
Niedrige LiquiditätSpread
8.0 pt
Breiter SpreadKommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
28. Sept. 26, 14:29 UTC30. Juni 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Polymarket
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Mindestorder (Anteile):
- 5
- Preisschritt:
- 1 Prozentpunkte
- Gebühren:
- Ja
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Next GPT Sol Model (6.1+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Grok Model (4.8+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketWhich AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3).
- Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Meta "Watermelon" model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.