Dieser Markt ist geschlossen und wartet auf eine bestätigte Auflösung.
Wartet auf verifizierte Auflösung
CoinRithm wartet auf eine vom Anbieter bestätigte Auflösung, bevor dieser Markt als aufgelöst behandelt wird.
Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 29.10.2026, 13:06 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Top 10 99%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Top 10 99%Marktqualitat
≤49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
13.284 €
Liquidität
6287,6 €
Mittlere LiquiditätOpen Interest
3431,7 $
Spread
2.1 pt
Mittlerer SpreadKommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert gestern
Veraltet28. Okt. 26, 21:52 UTC1. Juli 27, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Top 1099%
Top 598%
Top 197%
Top 397%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Rank Debut?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Rank Debut?
PolymarketKimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Rank Debut?
PolymarketWhich AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Google "Carbon" model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) holds a rank within the specified top ranks when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting.
- A model listed under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon, will qualify only if it is confirmed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon".
- Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.