MyriadAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja 6.8%
Marktqualitat
40 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
311,6 €
Liquidität
1315,2 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
-
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Minuten
17. Dez. 25, 15:0931. Juli 26, 23:59
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
YES7%
Plattformen vergleichen· NO
Sortiert nach 24h-Volumen| Plattform | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MyriadDiese SeiteAktivste | 93% | — | 311,6 € | 1315,2 € | vor 11 Minuten | |
 Manifold Markets | 92% | — | — | — | vor 11 Minuten | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Manifold Markets
Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026?
23T
8.3%
91.7%
Community-Prognose109 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen10.923,9 €
24h-Volumen0 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSRegeln
**Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date to July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Time:** This market will be resolved after the Market Close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.
- **Yes/No Criteria:**
- - Resolves to **"Yes"** if both Russia and Ukraine formally agree to a complete ceasefire through an official, publicly announced agreement before or at Resolution Time.
- The agreement must mandate a total cessation of all military operations—including but not limited to ground, air, naval, and cyber warfare—across all territories involved in the conflict (e.g., Ukraine, Russian-occupied territories, and border regions).
- Additionally, the ceasefire must be bilateral, with both Russia and Ukraine explicitly committing to halting all offensive and defensive military actions against each other, and it must apply to the entire conflict zone without geographic exceptions (e.g., it cannot exclude specific regions like Donbas or Crimea). - Resolves to **"No"** if all of the above conditions are not met before the Market Period ends
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
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**Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date to July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Time:** This market will be resolved after the Market Close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.
- **Yes/No Criteria:**
- - Resolves to **"Yes"** if both Russia and Ukraine formally agree to a complete ceasefire through an official, publicly announced agreement before or at Resolution Time.
- The agreement must mandate a total cessation of all military operations—including but not limited to ground, air, naval, and cyber warfare—across all territories involved in the conflict (e.g., Ukraine, Russian-occupied territories, and border regions).
- Additionally, the ceasefire must be bilateral, with both Russia and Ukraine explicitly committing to halting all offensive and defensive military actions against each other, and it must apply to the entire conflict zone without geographic exceptions (e.g., it cannot exclude specific regions like Donbas or Crimea). - Resolves to **"No"** if all of the above conditions are not met before the Market Period ends