Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 65.3%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten
17. Sept. 26, 04:52 UTC30. Apr. 27, 04:51 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?
Manifold MarketsWill Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Trump say in September?
KalshiWhat will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?
KalshiWhat will Trump say during his Rose Garden dinner?
KalshiRegeln
Auflösungskriterien sind für diesen Markt noch nicht verfügbar. Dieser Abschnitt wird nach den nächsten Aktualisierungen gefüllt, sobald die Quellregeln gespeichert sind.
Offene Märkte
US Politics
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change-10.0pt52.9%
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt45.1%
- 25 bps decrease-1.9pt1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 4,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2,7 Mio. €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-2.2pt93%
- Yes+2.2pt7%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 18,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 551.566,7 €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt88.1%
- Republican Party-2.0pt11.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 27,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 549.541,9 €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.2pt16%
+48 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
- Before Jan 1, 2027-5.0pt39%
- Before Dec 1, 202631.7%
- Before Nov 1, 202617.9%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 462.428,1 €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+3.0pt56%
- D-House, R-Senate32%
- Republicans sweep-3.0pt11%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 12,9 Mio. €
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Will the SAVE Act become law?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Maine Senate winner?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will trump say or write "effective altruism"??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 65% (Stand: 17. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will trump say or write "effective altruism"? entschieden?
- Will trump say or write "effective altruism"? soll am 30. April 2027 entschieden werden.