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Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
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Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 70%
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Veraltet9. Jan. 25, 01:18 UTC1. Feb. 27, 00:00 UTC
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Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
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Manifold MarketsNew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
KalshiMaine lobster landings in 2026
KalshiIs Earth flat?
PolymarketRegeln
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post [Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rationality meet at a Secular Solstice afterparty is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Offene Märkte
Society & CultureKALSHINew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
- Above 1.8 million96%
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+5 weitere Ergebnisse
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- 17.964,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5917,1 €
KALSHIMaine lobster landings in 2026
- Above 55 million pounds94%
- Above 70 million pounds66%
- Above 75 million pounds44%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9550 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2635,3 €
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- No-6.5pt72.3%
- Yes+6.5pt27.7%
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- 667,2 €
POLYMARKETIs Earth flat?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 50.420,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 571,9 €
FORECASTEXWill University of Michigan rank first for public universities in 2027?
- No94%
- Yes6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 522,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 522,2 €
FORECASTEXWill Harvard tuition exceed $61,000 in 2026?
- Yes98%
- No2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 522,2 €
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 70% (Stand: 17. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? entschieden?
- Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? soll am 1. Februar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.