Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?
Health & MedicineOne-Off17JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 62.3%
Prognostiker
27
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet29. Feb. 24, 11:21 UTC1. März 44, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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PolymarketRegeln
For the purpose of this market, a pandemic is “at least as deadly as COVID-19” if, by 1st March 2044, there have been more deaths caused by the pathogen since the beginning of this market than COVID-19 caused throughout its entire pandemic stage.
- The source for the numbers of deaths will be the official WHO site or, if the WHO ceases to exist, some suitable successor.
- Multiple mutations of the same pathogen (e.g. the original C19 and the omicron variant of C19) count as a single pandemic, with the exception of seasonal flu.
- Mutations of some other variant of flu (e.g. bird flu) do count as a single pandemic.
- Man-made pathogens count for this market as long as they spread primarily through human-to-human transmission.
- Man-made pathogens which do not spread much between individuals (e.g. anthrax) do not count.
Offene Märkte
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- No+0.3pt97%
- Yes-0.3pt3%
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- 15,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 13.095,9 €
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- Above 300099%
- Above 4000+7.0pt98%
- Above 6000+4.0pt62%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
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- 904.188,2 €
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- No-2.0pt95%
- Yes+2.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 513.107,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2083,4 €
KALSHIHow many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Above 8k+9.0pt97%
- Above 7k89%
- Above 9k81%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 13.951,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
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- Nigeria+17.0pt20%
- Rwanda13%
- Republic of the Congo7%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
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- 25.926,2 €
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 62% (Stand: 20. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044? entschieden?
- Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044? soll am 1. März 2044 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: For the purpose of this market, a pandemic is “at least as deadly as COVID-19” if, by 1st March 2044, there have been more deaths caused by the pathogen since the beginning of this market than COVID-19 caused throughout its entire pandemic stage.