Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 66.9%
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet10. Apr. 25, 18:10 UTC1. Jan. 35, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028
Manifold MarketsRepublicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in Hungary in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsSudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurRegeln
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to YES if a civil war breaks out in Turkey at any point between now and December 31, 2034.
- For the purposes of this market, a "civil war" is defined as an armed conflict within Turkey that:
- Results in at least 1,000 battle-related deaths within a 12-month period
- Involves organized armed groups fighting against the Turkish government or against each other
- Is recognized as a civil war by major international organizations (such as the UN) or by multiple credible conflict monitoring organizations
