Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 78.4%
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet22. Feb. 24, 13:22 UTC31. Dez. 99, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the Western Gorilla (Gorilla gorilla) become extinct in the current century?
Manifold MarketsWill the Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) become extinct in the current century?
Manifold MarketsWill the Kouprey (Bos sauveli) become extinct in the current century?
Manifold MarketsWill the Dodo bird be de-extinct by the end of 2028?
FutuurExtinct mammoth hybrids to be born alive by the end of 2027?
FutuurWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiRegeln
This market will resolve YES if the Sloth Bear is extinct in 2100.
- It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sloth_bear
- IUCN red list of threatened species
- https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/13143/166519315
- Please help trading this market and posting news about the species in the comments, in order to get the most accurate assessment of its extinction risk.
Offene Märkte
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 210.956,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 110.461,9 €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 21.315,2 €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5178,9 €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the Sloth Bear (Melursus ursinus) become extinct in the current century??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 78% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the Sloth Bear (Melursus ursinus) become extinct in the current century? entschieden?
- Will the Sloth Bear (Melursus ursinus) become extinct in the current century? soll am 31. Dezember 2099 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the Sloth Bear (Melursus ursinus) become extinct in the current century? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve YES if the Sloth Bear is extinct in 2100.