Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?
InflationOne-OffMakro & WirtschaftWirtschaft3J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 65%
Prognostiker
15
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet7. Nov. 24, 22:17 UTC1. Jan. 30, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsUS GDP growth in Q3 2026?
PolymarketWill 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This question will be resolved based on official U.S. economic data, focusing specifically on annual real GDP growth (adjusted for inflation).
- The question will resolve as “Yes” if real GDP growth for any full calendar year exceeds 5% between the years 2024 and 2029, inclusive.
- Otherwise, it will resolve as “No” if no such year exhibits this level of growth by the end of 2029.
- Specific Criteria
- Data Source:
- • The resolution will use official data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) or another recognized authoritative economic body.
