Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4??

Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 79.4% (Stand: 30. Oktober 2026).

Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?

KIOne-Off2Mon

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Ja 79.4%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 21 Stunden

Veraltet

1. Apr. 23, 18:39 UTC1. Jan. 27, 05:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Regeln

When GPT5 comes out, lists its capabilities according to all quantifiable metrics, and compare that to the same for GPT4 and GPT3.

If Capabilities(GPT5-GPT4) < Capabilities(GPT4-GPT3), this market resolves YES.
Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
This is regardless of whether there are diminishing returns in the cost required to get from GPT4 to GPT5.