Will President Trump be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?
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Nein 95%
Nein 95%Prognostiker
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Aktualisiert vor 22 Minuten
10. Feb. 24, 17:00 UTC21. Jan. 29, 04:59 UTC
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Next president to be declared incapacitated by 25th Amendment section 4
Manifold MarketsWill Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked against Donald Trump by his VP and cabinet during his second term?
Manifold MarketsWill the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?
KalshiWill President Trump be impeached during his term?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES if during the US Presidential term starting January 2025, the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet (or other relevant body) invokes Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to formally declare that "the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office" and cause the Vice President to serve as Acting President.
- The duration of the incapacity does not matter for this question.
- The President invoking section 3 of the 25th amendment does not count.
- The President exiting the office of the Presidency by death, resignation, etc does not count - in that event, the question resolves NO immediately, i.e. the President's successor does not count for the question.
- (Original pre-election title: Will the next President be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?)
