Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029?
PolitikOne-OffUS Politics2J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 87.7%
Prognostiker
15
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 58 Minuten
Verzogert2. Sept. 24, 21:08 UTC20. Jan. 29, 16:59 UTC
Trends
Regeln
Section 4 of the 25th Amendment provides, in relevant part, a process to declare the President unable to perform the duties of the office.
- If the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet (or of another body as Congress may by law provide) submit a declaration to Congress, the Vice President immediately assumes the role of Acting President.
- When this declaration is transmitted to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives to Congress, the Vice President immediately assumes the role of Acting President.
- This market will resolve YES when this initial declaration is transmitted regardless of subsequent action (e.g. congressional overruling, judicial intervention, refusal of the president to step aside, etc.).
- The invocation of Section 3 will under no circumstances resolve this market to YES unless Section 4 is invoked after the invocation of Section 3.
- Any and all Constitutional questions will be resolved in accordance with the article linked here unless the Supreme Court issues a controlling opinion that is directly contrary to an opinion expressed in the article at least 6 weeks before the invocation of Section 4.
Offene Märkte
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 606,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 721.045,7 €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 411.228,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 88% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029? entschieden?
- Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029? soll am 20. Januar 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Section 4 of the 25th Amendment provides, in relevant part, a process to declare the President unable to perform the duties of the office.