Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 80.8%
Prognostiker
21
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet1. Juli 22, 19:52 UTC8. Nov. 28, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach it's quorum before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one state that enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact withdraw from it by EOY 2035?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact go into effect by July 2028?
PredictItWill the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact go into effect by the 2032 election?
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
KalshiRegeln
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
- The compact is designed to ensure that the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide is elected president, and it would come into effect only when it would guarantee that outcome.
- As of June 2022, it has been adopted by fifteen states and the District of Columbia.
- These states have 195 electoral votes, which is 36% of the Electoral College and 72% of the 270 votes needed to give the compact legal force.
- (Per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact )
- On election day 2028, if the NPVIC controls enough votes to reach the threshold for activation (currently 270), this market resolves YES.
