Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 83.3%
Prognostiker
2
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet23. Aug. 26, 19:23 UTC30. Juni 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?
Manifold MarketsHow will the structural similarity of the three frontier AI safety frameworks (Anthropic RSP, OpenAI Preparedness, GDM F
Manifold MarketsWill the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Initiative #25-0024A1 (2026 Billionaire Tax Act) pass in California in 2026?
ForecastExWhen will the PROMISE Act pass the Senate?
KalshiU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the federal "Frontier Risk Oversight, National Transparency, Independent Evaluation, and Reporting Act" (commonly known as the FRONTIER Act, introduced as H.R. 9925 in the 119th Congress, or any substantially similar federal legislation under the same name or serving as its direct successor) is enacted into law by the United States federal government on or before July 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- "Enacted into law" requires that the bill is signed by the President of the United States, is passed over a presidential veto, or otherwise becomes law through constitutional processes.
- If no such federal legislation is enacted into law by the deadline, this market will resolve to NO.
- The primary source of truth for the status of the legislation is the official United States Congress tracking page at Congress.gov.
- Note: California's state-level "Transparency in Frontier Artificial Intelligence Act" (SB 53), which was signed into law in September 2025, does not satisfy the resolution of this market.
Offene Märkte
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 83% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027? entschieden?
- Will the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027? soll am 30. Juni 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria