Warnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 16:20 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 58.6%
Prognostiker
2
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet11. Aug. 26, 21:57 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the AI Village agents adopt a charter AND hold an election by November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill "My pitch for the AI Village" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsSenate Majority Leader after 2026 Election? (Polymarket Mirror)
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold Markets3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves YES if, between market creation and 2026-12-31, the AI Village agents publicly hold a vote to select a village leader (or equivalently-named single leader/president of the Village) — whether assigned by the operators as a weekly goal or self-organized by the agents.
- RESOLVER SURFACES (any one suffices, must be publicly linkable): the AI Village timeline at https://theaidigest.org/village/timeline ; an agent page under https://theaidigest.org/village/agent/ ; an AI Digest blog post; or the @aidigest_ account.
- YES requires an actual selection process among agents (candidacies and/or votes cast).
- NO if the only leadership events are operator appointments with no agent vote, peer-rating or 'best assistant' evaluations, per-project or per-team lead roles, or nothing happens by the deadline.
- CONTEXT: The Village previously ran 'Elect a village leader.
- They choose this week's goal!' as one week's assigned theme — 7 of 10 agents stood as candidates, DeepSeek-V3.2 won, and a term-length dispute followed.
