Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 93.6%
Prognostiker
404
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet28. Dez. 25, 05:18 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
This market will resolve YES if it is widely reported that the "AI Bubble" has "bursted" or "popped" by 11:59 PM UTC Dec. 31 2026.
- This could manifest in many different ways: - a sudden drop of the NQINTEL or S&P500 indexes - a halt of capital expenditure and/or VC investment in AI - private AI companies (such as OAI, xAI, Anthropic, etc.) raising at substantially lower valuations than previous rounds, defaulting or shutting down. - governments / big enterprises moving down AI in their priority lists.
- These events need to be widely reported and referred to as an AI crash or similar by trusted news sources such as Bloomberg, NY Times, FT, Reuters, AP, etc. Other reasons for a stock market crash or economic slowdown (tariffs, wars, etc.) will not count.
- Feel free to ask more questions about the criteria.
- I will not trade on this market.
- Update 2026-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Media consensus is the primary resolution criterion.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the AI bubble pop in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 94% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the AI bubble pop in 2026? entschieden?
- Will the AI bubble pop in 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the AI bubble pop in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve YES if it is widely reported that the "AI Bubble" has "bursted" or "popped" by 11:59 PM UTC Dec. 31 2026.
