Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
KIOne-Off1JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 84.3%
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Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Help me launch Obsolete: a book aimed at buil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM naturalist is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+23.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+24.5pt43%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 125.175,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 55.021,8 €
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.6pt14.3%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+21.5pt50%
- September 30, 2026+20.5pt34%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-2.0pt5%
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.6pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,3 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,4 Mio. €
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Tencent market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI market share this week
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 84% (Stand: 11. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? entschieden?
- Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? soll am 1. Februar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.