Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
One-OffKI1MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 88.2%
Prognostiker
25
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet20. Okt. 22, 13:04 UTC20. Okt. 26, 21:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
The Shard Theory research program by Team Shard is based on the idea that we should directly study the what types of cognition/circuitry are encouraged by reinforcement learning, and reason mechanistically about how reward leads to them, rather than the classic Outer Alignment/Inner Alignment factorization which aims to create a reward function that matches human values and somehow give an AI a goal of maximizing that reward.
- A hope is that understanding how reward maps to behavior is more tractable than Outer Alignment/Inner Alignment, and that we therefore might be able to solve alignment without solving Outer Alignment/Inner Alignment.
- In 4 years, I will evaluate Shard Theory and decide whether there have been any important good results since today.
- I will probably ask some of the alignment researchers I most respect (such as John Wentworth or Steven Byrnes) for advice about the assessment, unless it is dead-obvious.
- About me: I have been following AI and alignment research on and off for years, and have a somewhat reasonable mathematical background to evaluate it.
- I tend to have an informal idea of the viability of various alignment proposals, though it's quite possible that idea might be wrong.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 88% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? entschieden?
- Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? soll am 20. Oktober 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The Shard Theory research program by Team Shard is based on the idea that we should directly study the what types of cognition/circuitry are encouraged by reinforcement learning, and reason mechanistically about how reward leads to them, rather than the classic Outer Alignment/Inner Alignment factorization which aims to create a reward function that matches human values and somehow give an AI a goal of maximizing that reward.