Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates??

Manifold Markets bewertet Raise by >5% mit 64.2% (Stand: 31. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates? entschieden?

Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates? soll am 2. Januar 2100 entschieden werden.

FedOne-OffKI

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Raise by >5% 64.2%

Führend unter 7 Optionen

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

7d-Änderung

0.0 pts

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden

Veraltet

1. Apr. 24, 00:04 UTC2. Jan. 00, 04:59 UTC

Trends

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Regeln

Measured with the 10-yr real interest rate as calculated by the St-Louis Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y

Baseline: Average of the 10-yr real interest rate.
I will average the rate over the year preceding the release of Strong AI.
I will then average the same rate, starting one year after the release of said strong AI.
This resolves at T + 2 yr after the release of strong AI.
Will extend indefinitely.