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Veraltet25. Apr. 23, 03:04 UTC31. Dez. 29, 14:00 UTC
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Which months of 2026 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX's Starship have 40 successful launches before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an all-reused European orbital launch vehicle reach orbit before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill there be crewed Starship flights to Mars in 4 years if there are successful launches 2 years from now?
Manifold MarketsHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
PolymarketHow many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
I'm considering the first IFT "Not Successful", in that it didn't insert Starship into a near-orbital trajectory.
- Even though personally I think it was a successful data gathering flight.
- The guiding principle for success is something like "Did this flight prove to customers their payload will go where they want it to go?".
- Essentially, will SpaceX make 500 launches that a customer would consider proves satisfactory reliability and safety of the system by Jan 1st 2030.
- Clarified criteria:
- A "successful launch" means any launch in which: