Manifold MarketsGeschlossenKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertDieser Markt wurde entschieden: Yes (95.7%)
Entschieden: 06.08.2026, 16:50
Vom Anbieter verifizierte Auflösung
CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 95.7%
Prognostiker
144
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Tagen
Veraltet2. Aug. 26, 21:406. Aug. 26, 16:50
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
Yes95.7%
No4.299999999999997%
95.7%
4.3%
Regeln
Something happens is defined as anything that:
- Zvi does not know about on August 2, 2026 at 5pm EST (he knows about the math proofs, which will be Monday's post)
- Obligates (not merely allows) a speed premium post to Don't Worry About the Vase
- Is about AI.
- The speed premium post can happen after Friday, but the central events that trigger it must occur by Friday 5pm eastern.
- Resolves YES if this happens.
Offene Märkte
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 255.550,9 €
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $72,500 or above97.5%
- $73,000 or above97%
- $73,500 or above97%
+36 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 143.613,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 130.468,9 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 7,8 Mio. €
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BMW Championship Winner
- XRP price on August 21
- XRP price on August 31
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 7)??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 96% (Stand: 8. August 2026).
- Wann wird Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 7)? entschieden?
- Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 7)? soll am 6. August 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 7)? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Something happens is defined as anything that: