Will September 2026 U.S. payroll growth turn negative in its first revision?
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Will the increase in US Payroll Employment exceed 80,000 in October 2026?
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Resolves YES if the first BLS Employment Situation release covering October 2026 reports a negative seasonally adjusted change in total U.S. nonfarm payroll employment from August to September 2026.
- Use September minus August employment in the seasonally adjusted Total nonfarm row of Table B-1 in that release.
- A result below zero resolves YES; zero or higher resolves NO.
- If the narrative and table disagree, Table B-1 controls.
- This concerns September’s first monthly revision, not October’s new payroll estimate.
- Use the release as initially published; subsequent corrections, monthly revisions, and annual benchmark revisions do not count.
