Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?
PolitikGeopolitik3J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNot on NATO area/Not at all 70%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet23. Mai 25, 16:15 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a GTA game (GTA GTA) be made out of the GTA (greater toronto area) by EOY 2029?
Manifold MarketsFrontier Valley breaks ground in the Bay Area by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attack NATO before 2034?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attack a NATO member in 2026?
FutuurIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first European NATO member state that Russia attacks and/or occupies between May 23, 2025, and December 31, 2029.
- An "attack" is defined as a military assault involving Russian armed forces crossing into the territory of a NATO member state. "Occupation" refers to Russian forces establishing control over any part of a NATO member state's territory.
- The market will resolve based on credible reports from reputable news organizations or official government statements confirming such an event.
- If no such attack or occupation occurs by the end of 2029, the market will resolve to "the named outcome."
- Tensions between Russia and NATO have escalated in recent years, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
