Will post-WWII international orders die before 2030?
HandelspolitikOne-OffGeopolitikPolitikRussland / UkraineChinaEuropa3JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 68.1%
Prognostiker
2
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 21 Minuten
16. Okt. 26, 21:33 UTC31. Dez. 29, 11:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will post-WWII international orders die before 2050?
Manifold MarketsDid the USA missile sites in Okinawa receive erroneous orders to launch their nuclear missiles during the cold war?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS and EU form transatlantic superstate by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia control the world globally before 2031?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2030 (11:59 PM UTC), the core institutional framework of the post-WWII rules-based international order formally collapses or ceases to function, operationalized by at least one of the following objective events:
- Dissolution or Paralysis of the United Nations: The formal dissolution of the UN, or the withdrawal/expulsion of at least two permanent members of the UN Security Council (P5), or an official cessation of UN General Assembly operations.
- Collapse of Core Post-WWII Multilateral Pacts: The formal dissolution of NATO, or the formal termination/withdrawal of the majority of founding members from the Bretton Woods institutions (the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank).
- Direct Great-Power War: An officially declared war or direct, sustained conventional military conflict between two or more UN Security Council permanent members (United States, China, Russia, United Kingdom, France).
- If none of these objective milestones occur before January 1, 2030, this market resolves to NO.
