Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 72%
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Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet7. März 24, 03:55 UTC2. Jan. 40, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will OpenAI be one of the top 5 most valuable companies before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI be one of the top 10 most valuable public companies in the world at the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsBitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027?
PolymarketAlphabet becomes the most valuable company in the world by end of 2026
Manifold MarketsAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketMicrosoft’s Market Cap end of 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves yes if OpenAI has a valuation (from a funding round etc.) or market cap greater than Microsoft at any point before Jan. 1st 2040.
- If the corporate structure of either company changes, the question will not necessarily resolve to No. I will lean towards counting any new structures the same as the old ones if they broadly contain similar AI assets/capabilities.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 72% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040? entschieden?
- Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040? soll am 2. Januar 2040 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves yes if OpenAI has a valuation (from a funding round etc.) or market cap greater than Microsoft at any point before Jan. 1st 2040.