Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseOther harms 100%Führend unter 3 Optionen
Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet21. März 26, 01:22 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
100%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Insider Trading Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027?
Manifold MarketsJane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Clarity Act become law?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
KalshiRegeln
From now until the end of 2026, will prediction market manipulation of any sort result in verified harm? Market manipulation requires traders with invested stakes in a market attempting to sway the outcome of the market.
- A commonly cited example are supposed "assassination markets" which could result in traders committing murder in order to win a bet.
- This is one way "the named outcome" could resolve.
- This market is a twin to this market on Insider Trading harms.
- The primary difference between the two is that Insider Trading denotes important figures involved with the resolution in some manner, trading in accordance.
- By contrast, Market Manipulation is done by random traders, who can be reasonably presumed at the time of market creation to have little to no relevant sway on the resolution.
Offene Märkte
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-1.6pt92%
- Yes+1.6pt8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 18,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 260.827,1 €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027+11.0pt22.9%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+2.0pt21.1%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+9.0pt21.1%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt87%
- December 15,83%
- November 30,+2.0pt80%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt87%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt84%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIWill the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
- Before Jan 1, 202895%
- Before Sep 1, 2027-1.0pt57%
- Before April 1, 2027+4.0pt50%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Above 58-0.5pt10%
- Above 60+0.5pt10%
- Above 62-1.0pt9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
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- Will data center power-cost standards become law?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Senate passes Clarity Act by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
- Holtec Nuclear IPO Closing Market Cap
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Market Manipulation Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Other harms mit 100% (Stand: 17. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Market Manipulation Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027? entschieden?
- Will Market Manipulation Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Market Manipulation Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: From now until the end of 2026, will prediction market manipulation of any sort result in verified harm? Market manipulation requires traders with invested stakes in a market attempting to sway the outcome of the market.