Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 66.6%
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Veraltet1. Jan. 26, 14:24 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?
Manifold MarketsWhich theorems will be officially formally proven in Lean by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
This question resolves based on the total number of lines of code (LOC) in the Lean mathlib repository.
- As of late 2025, mathlib contains approximately 2.1 million lines of code across roughly 8,000 files.
- Over the past two years, growth has been approximately linear, which (if extrapolated) would not reach 10 million LOC by 2030.
- Therefore, a “Yes” outcome implies a substantial acceleration in the rate of formalization, potentially driven by improved tooling, automation, or AI-assisted proof generation.
- Resolution criterion: This question resolves Yes if the official mathlib statistics report more than 10,000,000 total lines of code at any point on or before December 31, 2030.
- Otherwise, it resolves No.
Offene Märkte
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 802.561,8 €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 736.478,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 585.562,7 €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
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- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
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- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 67% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030? entschieden?
- Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This question resolves based on the total number of lines of code (LOC) in the Lean mathlib repository.