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Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?
KalshiWill Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia ever become a democracy?
Manifold MarketsWho will Andy Burnham meet in person in 2026?
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Criteria for Resolution:
- Democracy Definition: Iran must undergo significant political changes resulting in a form of government characterized by free and fair elections, protection of civil liberties, political pluralism, and the rule of law.
- Verification of Democratic Status:
- - Free and Fair Elections: Iran must hold national elections that are widely recognized as free and fair by reputable international organizations, such as the United Nations, the European Union, or credible NGOs like Freedom House or the Carter Center.
- - Civil Liberties: There must be substantial evidence of the protection of civil liberties, including freedom of speech, press, assembly, and religion, as reported by reputable human rights organizations.
- - Political Pluralism: Multiple political parties must be able to operate without undue restriction, and opposition parties must have a genuine chance to compete for power.
