Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 20:15 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 68.4%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet2. Juni 23, 01:58 UTC31. Dez. 34, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any serving head of state/government of a UN-recognised country become vegan by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Neil deGrasse Tyson become vegan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsSkin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by which date?
PolymarketIs Cheryl Scott from ABC CHICAGO pregnant????!?!??? 🤰
Manifold MarketsAnthropic lab leak by which date?
PolymarketCan the son do more push-ups than the father?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
To resolve yes:
- Has to be for a continuous 18-month period (if I'm partway at close then I will extend it until the 18-month period/I quit).
- Has to be 95% of the time (I abide by the diet for 520/547 days of the 18-month period.
- And on any days I do break it, it has to be for an extenuating circumstance or super special occasion and not just a "cheat day".)
- Lab-created meat is fine.
- If anyone can see any other loopholes/technicalities that could come up that I haven't thought of let me know.
