Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 72.9%
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Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten
4. Aug. 26, 21:06 UTC15. Sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
In 2030, will there be at least 50,000 people in whatever the Neom project has evolved into by then?
Manifold MarketsIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiUS Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on September 14 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
According to a rumor on Twitter Ilya's firm SSI is planning to finally release a product in August.
- They have previously stated that their plan is to release nothing until they have superintelligence.
- So, if they are true to their word this release should be pretty amazing right? I am skeptical, but would like to remain open to being surprised.
- SITUATION DETECTED: Ilya Sutskever's Safe Superintelligence is reportedly planning to launch its highly anticipated first model in August 2026, per Gavin Baker in an interview with Patrick O'Shaughnessy.
- https://x.com/i/status/2084675767053824332
- So this is a subjective market, and therefore one I will not be betting in.
Offene Märkte
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 23,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 312.643,5 €
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 6,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 153.291 €
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will I be wowed by whatever SSI releases in August??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 73% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will I be wowed by whatever SSI releases in August? entschieden?
- Will I be wowed by whatever SSI releases in August? soll am 15. September 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will I be wowed by whatever SSI releases in August? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: According to a rumor on Twitter Ilya's firm SSI is planning to finally release a product in August.