Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 80.2%
Prognostiker
28
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert18. Apr. 25, 15:44 UTC31. Dez. 32, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill the Coalition next split before the next election?
Manifold MarketsWill Kamala announce a run in 2028
Manifold MarketsWill there be another covid-like pandemic during second Trump administration?
Manifold MarketsBrazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026?
FutuurScrewworm National Emergency declared by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Elon used to vote democrat, post stuff about his support for LGBT people, and was a hero of the climate movement.
- That is... no longer the case.
- But maybe it will be once again?
- Resolves based on my judgement of the vibes.
- Simply becoming more critical of the Trump admin would not be sufficient, he has to firmly be left-coded.
- Update 2025-07-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Joining or supporting the America Party will not be sufficient for a YES resolution.
