Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030??

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 91.9% (Stand: 27. Oktober 2026).

Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030?

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24. Feb. 24, 10:44 UTC1. Jan. 30, 10:59 UTC

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For example, if he decides that actually we should try to build ASI even if it means a great risk to the human race.

Or if he decides that the creation of ASI doesn't actually pose a great risk to the human race.
Update 2025-02-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Key Resolution Update:
The reversal must include an explicit admission that Yudkowsky was wrong about his previous stance on AI safety.
Merely adjusting his perspective (e.g., claiming he was only slightly off or that we just got lucky) will not meet the criteria.
The explicit admission is the central and decisive component for a valid resolution.