Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade?
One-OffGesellschaft & Kultur3JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 64.1%
Prognostiker
68
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet13. Dez. 22, 07:27 UTC1. Jan. 30, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill research towards time travel be a cause area of Effective Altruism before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsEffective Altruism stock [permanent]
Manifold MarketsIs Earth flat?
PolymarketDid Donald Trump have gay sex?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves subjectively.
- What this might include is a noticeable split into e.g. longtermist and neartermist.
- For example, with a large (>10%) minority of members of either groups stopping to identify as part of broader EA generally.
- Open to hashing out more objective criteria.
